Aug. 17, 2020
Meat export challenges
By Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist
The U.S. is on track for record production of beef, pork and broilers in 2020. Before COVID-19, it was recognized that meat trade would be critical for markets in 2020 and that certainly remains true at this point. After the severe disruptions in the first half of the year, expectations for meat trade have been revised and there is more uncertainty about global meat markets going forward.
Pork exports through June are up 27.4% year over year, led by a 335.6% year-over-year increase in pork exports to China. China has replaced Mexico as the top pork export destination, with Mexico down 2.8% for the year to date. Number three pork export market Japan is up 2.8% so far in 2020, following a 23.2% year-over-year decrease in June.
Broiler exports are up 4.2% year-over-year thus far in 2020, with latest data for June showing a 1.1% decrease from one year ago. Mexico remains the largest broiler export market with year-to-date exports up 2.0% following a 6.0% year-over-year decrease in June. China is the second largest broiler export market accounting for 7.6% of total broiler for the first half of 2020. The sum of broiler exports to China and Hong Kong, a better measure of total broiler demand in China, is up 173.5% year-over-year in the January-June period.
Year-to-date beef exports are down 7.6% for the January-June period, following a 33.0% year-over-year drop in June and a similar decrease in May. Japan remains the largest U.S. beef export market and is up 5.6% year-over-year in the first half of 2020. However, this follows a 20.7% decrease in June and a 23.6% year-over-year decrease in May.
Number two South Korea is down 7.4% year-over-year through June following double-digit monthly decreases in April, May and June.
Mexico, the number three market in recent years has seen monthly decreases averaging 66.9% in the second quarter, dropping Mexico to the fourth largest beef export market with a year-to-date total down 37.7% from one year ago. Canada, currently the third largest beef export market, is up 12.0% in the first half of the year.
China remains a small beef export market (1.4% of total exports this year) but is up 70.9% for the year-to-date. Hong Kong is down 8.0% so far this year and the combined total of China and Hong Kong is up 0.2% for the year-to-date.
With a weaker global economic situation, meat trade forecasts have been revised. Total pork and broiler exports are still projected higher year-over-year but beef exports are now projected to be lower year-over-year.
China will continue to be a major driver of global protein trade, especially pork. Mexico remains a major concern with dramatic economic weakness expected to continue. Four of the five largest beef exports markets dropped sharply in the second quarter; and will be watched closely for recovery in the second half of the year. China will remain a minor beef export market in 2020 but is likely to continue growing, barring major geopolitical disruptions.
Why is 45-day weaning important to feeder calf health?
By Glenn Selk, Oklahoma State University Emeritus Extension animal scientist
Value-Added calf sales will begin in October and continue in the fall months. Therefore, some of the required weaning dates may already be here, and others are only a few days away. Most of the Value-Added calf sales require that the calves are weaned at least 45 days prior to sale date. Some cow calf producers may wonder why the post-weaning period needs to be so lengthy.
Data from Iowa (Faber, et al. 1999 Iowa State University Beef Research Report) from over a nine year period in a couple of their feedout tests compared the health status of calves weaned less than 30 days to calves weaned longer than 30 days. Data from more than 2000 calves were summarized. Calves that had been sent to a feedlot at a time less than 30 days had a higher incidence of bovine respiratory disease (28%) compared to calves weaned longer than 30 days (13%).
The percentage of calves that required three or more treatments also was significantly different (6% versus 1%) in favor of calves that had been weaned more than 30 days. In fact, the calves weaned less than 30 days were not different in health attributes than calves that were weaned on the way to the feedlot.
A summary of this lengthy study can be found on line at http://www.extension.iastate.edu/Pages/ansci/beefreports/asl-1648.pdf. Vac-45 calves apparently have a real advantage in terms of health compared to calves weaned for less than a month or those weaned on the way to the livestock market for sale date. Certainly part of the “value” in value-added calves can be attributed to properly-applied vaccinations. However, there is little doubt that a portion of the improved health is due to the length of time between weaning and the movement of calves to the next owner.
Information about the Oklahoma Quality Beef Network (OQBN) value added calf sales can be found on the OQBN website. The weaning dates are coming up very soon for the October sales. Upcoming sale dates and appropriate weaning dates are available on the website. Therefore, producers with calves that meet those guidelines should make the appropriate contacts soon. The OQBN website is http://oqbn.okstate.edu .