South: Most areas in the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains recorded little or no rainfall, with moderate to isolated heavy amounts limited to parts of central Oklahoma, western Texas, and the Louisiana Bayou. The rains brought regions of improvement (but not broad-scale relief) to western Texas, including the Big Bend.
Farther north, a re-assessment of conditions led to some improvement being introduced in the Texas Panhandle (especially northern sections) and eastern parts of the Oklahoma Panhandle and adjacent western Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the dry and hot week prompted substantial deterioration across central and eastern Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and (to a lesser extent) eastern Oklahoma. As a result, moderate to severe drought became more widespread, especially in a swath from southern to northeastern Texas. Grass fires have become unusually common across the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area.
In southwestern Texas, to the north and northwest of Laredo, a broad area of extreme drought (D3) was introduced, with an area of exceptional drought (D4) introduced in part of this region along the Rio Grande River. Most of the new D3 area recorded only 2 to 4 inches of rain in the last 90 days, and 3-month totals of only 0.5 to 1.5 inches (with widely isolated higher amounts) were recorded in the new D4 region.
Looking Ahead: For the remainder of this week (through July 8, 2018), moderate precipitation (0.5 to 1.2 inches) is forecast across a broad area in the southeastern Great Plains, the Ohio and lower half of the Mississippi River Valleys, and the Eastern Seaboard. Heavy rain (2 to locally 5 inches) is forecast in southeastern Texas and the southern tier of Louisiana, and amounts could reach 2 inches in eastern Pennsylvania and southwestern Florida.
Farther west, moderate to heavy rain (0.5 to locally 2.5 inches) is forecast for parts of the central and northeastern Great Plains, and far northern Mississippi Valley. Rainfall should be light with isolated moderate totals in the rest of the country east of the Rockies while little or no rain is expected from the Rockies to the Pacific Ocean.
Average daily minimum temperatures should be above-normal throughout the contiguous states, with the largest departures (6 to 10 degrees F) expected in the southern Rockies, parts of the Great Basin and northern Great Plains, and throughout the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Daily high temperatures will not differ as far from normal, with 5-day anomalies exceeding 3 degrees F more than normal limited to the Northwest, the Intermountain West, most of the Rockies, the Great Lakes, and New England.
The subsequent 5-day period (July 9-13, 2018), Odds favor above-normal rainfall in central and southern sections of California, the Intermountain West (including the Great Basin), and the Rockies, with surplus precipitation most likely in northern Arizona. Farther east, wet weather is also favored in the lower Mississippi Valley, most of the Southeast, the southern and eastern Ohio Valley, and the middle Atlantic States. Southern Alaska also has enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation. In contrast, subnormal rainfall is favored from central and southern Texas northward through the Plains, the western Great Lakes, the northern Intermountain West, and the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures are expected to average above normal across most of the contiguous states, with the exceptions of southeastern Arizona, southwestern New Mexico, and part of southern Alaska, where cooler than normal conditions seem more likely.
