South (Texas and Oklahoma): Showers and thunderstorms were numerous along the western and central Gulf Coasts and across most of Louisiana, Mississippi, and central Tennessee where 2-4 inches of rain, locally to 8 inches, fell. Lighter amounts (1-2 inches) were recorded from east-central New Mexico eastward into southwestern Oklahoma, across northeastern Texas, central Arkansas, and western Tennessee. Little or no rain was reported in southwestern and central Texas, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, northern and eastern Oklahoma, northwestern and southeastern Arkansas, and northwestern Mississippi. In Texas, after a very wet September (preliminary stats indicated Sep’18 was the second or third wettest month on record statewide), a reassessment using station-based precipitation amounts (CoCoRAHs) and radar-based precipitation estimates (AHPS), along with reported impacts, indicated better (wetter) conditions in central and eastern Texas, and worse (drier) conditions in the far southwest and Panhandle areas. Accordingly, improvements were made in central and eastern Texas, with deteriorations in far southwestern and Panhandle areas. Southwestern Oklahoma saw some improvement with the 1-2 inches of rain, but northeastern sections were degraded where 30-day deficits were found (similar to the Midwest summary for Missouri). Additional improvements were made in Louisiana, northeastern Mississippi, and south-central Tennessee, although the D1 near the TN-MS-AL borders remained and expanded slightly northward as reflected in the 60-day deficiencies. Most 7-day averaged USGS stream flows have recovered with the recent rains and are at normal to above-normal flows. Likewise, Sep. 30 USDA/NASS pasture and range lands have recovered in Texas and Oklahoma, with only 19% and 15% rated poor or very poor while 47% and 50% were rated good or very good, respectively. Similarly, soil moistures have improved in both states, with a continued decline in the categories of short to very short topsoil (17 and 21%) and subsoil (30 and 26%) moistures using raw statewide proportions.
Looking Ahead: During the next 5 days (October 4-8), a highly amplified upper-level pattern is likely to become established across the middle latitudes of the North Pacific and North America. A highly amplified upper-level trough are forecast to result in widespread above-normal precipitation throughout the Great Basin and north-central Rockies. The first major snowfall of the season is likely to blanket the Rocky Mountains with the higher elevations forecast to receive more than a foot. Accumulating snow, with locally high amounts, is probable for parts of the northern and central high Plains. As the upper-level trough amplifies over the West, maximum temperatures are forecast to average as much as 20 to 30 degrees F below normal across the north-central Rockies and adjacent high Plains on Oct 7 and 8. Multiple waves of low pressure are likely to emerge from the upper-level trough over the western U.S. and bring widespread heavy to excessive rainfall (3 to 7 inches, locally more) from the southern Great Plains northeast to the upper Mississippi Valley. The strong ridge aloft is likely to result in little to no rainfall along with much above-normal temperatures across the increasingly dry areas of Georgia.
For the CPC 6-10 day extended range outlook (Oct. 9-13), indicates that the high amplitude pattern is likely to persist, resulting in a high confidence forecast with very high odds (above 80 percent)of below normal temperatures forecast for the northern Great Plains, northern/central Rockies, and Great Basin. Very high odds (above 80 percent) of above normal temperatures are forecast across the eastern third of the continental U.S. (CONUS). Above-normal precipitation is favored for much of the CONUS with the highest odds across the north-central Rockies, Great Plains, and middle to upper Mississippi Valley. Above-normal temperatures are likely throughout Alaska except for the Alaska Panhandle. Enhanced odds for above-normal precipitation are forecast for the Aleutians and mainland Alaska, while below-normal precipitation is favored to continue across the Alaska Panhandle.
Read more at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
<img src=”https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/20181002/20181002_south_trd.jpg” />