For the first time in more than 3 1/2 months, a widespread soaking rain fell over large parts of the region this week, where 1 to 2+ inches of rain was received in places, including over the extreme drought (D3) area around the Texas-Louisiana-Arkansas border, which shrank considerably. Deeper moisture returning northward from the Gulf of Mexico fueled the development of scattered thunderstorms, along with locally heavy rainfall at times. The heaviest precipitation fell over southern and eastern Texas and southern Louisiana. These regions saw a one-category improvement with respect to current drought conditions. The rain was enough to improve D0 to normal conditions in parts of southern Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. Unfortunately, that rain did not extend to northern Texas or Oklahoma, where continued dryness led to a deterioration in several areas, including Foard County just south of the Texas Panhandle, where extreme drought developed.
Over the next week, beginning Dec. 19, a good deal of much-needed precipitation is forecast to fall across much of the South and the eastern United States. A swath from eastern Texas to North Carolina, most of Kentucky, and southern Virginia are expected to receive between two and six inches of precipitation. Dry conditions will likely continue across the Southwest and parts of the southern Plains, where drought conditions already prevailed. Warm temperatures in the South at the beginning of the week will be replaced by cold air sliding down from the north.
Looking further ahead at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 day Outlook (Dec. 24-28), the probability of dry conditions are highest in the Northwest and Midwest, while wet conditions may occur over New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, and Texas, and stretching across the much of the South and along the East Coast. During this period, below-average temperatures are expected over nearly the entire contiguous U.S., except for parts of the Mid Atlantic along the coast and the Southeast, including Florida. Looking two weeks out (Dec. 26 – Jan. 1), the cold temperatures are expected to continue, except in Florida and the Southwest. The probability of above-average precipitation is highest over part of Montana and Texas, while below-average precipitation is most likely in the Northwest and much of the northern U.S. from the Northeast to the eastern Dakotas.
Read more at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.