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The Browning Blog: When will El Niño end?

Jan. 22, 2016

When Will El Niño End?
by Historical Climatologist Evelyn Browning-Garriss & Climatological Analyst James J. Garriss
As headlines predict a snowy apocalypse because the politicians in Washington DC may face (horrors!) two feet of snow, the unwritten headline is that El Niño has peaked. In more than half of the strong El Niños on record, the event dumped a huge amount of snow on Washington. Then, having made its snowy mark, the El Niño fades.

A large El Niño in the Pacific shapes weather around the world. Source: NOAA
A large El Niño in the Pacific shapes weather around the world. Source: NOAA

There are numerous signs that the El Niño has reached its peak and is already showing signs of fading. This is important to track. The strongest El Niños, those where the tropical Pacific is at least 2°C (3.6°F) hotter than normal, have historically been followed by a few months later by a drought-inducing La Niña.
The timing of when a dry La Niña starts is critical, since untimely dry weather can wreck a summer pasture or damage crop development. So when do experts expect it to fade?
Since Dec. 16, the El Nino area of the Tropical Pacific has been cooling.
Since Dec. 16, the El Nino area of the Tropical Pacific has been cooling.

It is already fading. Over the past four weeks, the western waters of the La Niña have been getting cooler. This does not mean the fading will be continuous. The Pacific is turbulent, with surges of warmer and cooler tropical water that flow from west to east. Currently there is a large area of cooler water floating into the hot El Niño. Some scientists suggest it may be followed by a warmer blob in February, giving the El Niño more hot water and letting it last longer.
The experts don’t expect the El Niño to last into summer. Source: CPC/NOAA
The experts don’t expect the El Niño to last into summer. Source: CPC/NOAA

When weather agencies around the world are polled, more than 90 percent agree the El Niño will last all winter. Slightly more than 60 percent expect it to last all spring. Less than 40 percent expect it to continue into June. This means there is a good chance that late summer may be seeing some very dry conditions in critical areas.
If this El Niño listened to farmers, it would last into summer, bringing its normal summer rains. Maybe it would dump a bit more snow on the sidewalk of your least favorite Washington politician. As it is, here at Browning Media, we are watching it fade and warning our readers. Just as El Niño can bring heavy rains and snows — when it fades, so does the rain. – EBG | JJG
For nearly 40 years, The Browning Newsletter has been simply the best, most accurate source for long-term climate forecasts. Subscribers include a diverse group of people and institutions interested in profiting from opportunities presented by changing climate, and those looking to protect their interests that might be affected by changing climate.
They include farmers and ranchers, commodities brokers, large banks and financial institutions, hedge funds, agricultural supply vendors, and people interested in our global climate.
For more information, including subscription information, click here or visit browningnewsletter.com

Written by:
kristin
Published on:
January 22, 2016

Categories: General

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