• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association

Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association

To Honor and Protect the Ranching Way of Life

  • Home
  • Who We Are
    • Why Join
    • Leadership
    • Staff
    • TSCRA Partners
    • FAQs
    • Newsroom
    • Sponsorships
    • Employment
  • What We Do
    • Theft and Law
    • Issues and Policy
    • Education
    • Young Cattle Raisers
    • The Cattleman Magazine
    • Disaster Relief Fund
    • Cattle Raisers Insurance
    • Cattle Raisers Trading Co
    • Students and Youth
  • Events
    • Cattle Raisers Convention
    • Summer Meeting
    • Policy Conference
    • Ranch Gatherings
    • Ranching 101
  • Join
  • Member Center
  • TSCRA Store
  • Show Search
Hide Search

Livestock Wx for Jan. 26, 2018: Phil's Forecast


Keep updated on the latest weather trends and outlooks with your personal daily weather planner—delivered each day via email. To subscribe to this free service click here.
Livestock Wx for Jan. 26, 2018: Phil’s Forecast
Happy Groundhog Day everyone. Today Phil saw his shadow and I guess that means we are in for six more weeks of winter. Phil’s track record at predicting winter, however, is not exactly stellar. In the past 10 years, he has been right about 50 percent of the time. In some cases, though, that might actually beat some seasonal weather forecasters so we should give some credit to Phil. It’s not easy making good forecasts!
January Precipitation Deficits
While it’s finally February we must, unfortunately, take a look at the January precipitation deficits… and it’s as bad as you probably thought. The below map shows the 30-day percent of normal precipitation. Large areas of Oklahoma and Texas observed 10 percent or less of what would normally be expected in January. In case anyone is keeping track of the number of days without measurable precipitation, the gauges at Woodward and Lavern, Oklahoma turned 122 today. That’s 122 days without a hundredth of an inch or more of moisture.

Average temperatures, on the other hand, have been mostly cool for the month ranging from 1 to 7 degrees below normal.
Drought Marches On
In this week’s Drought Monitor (see image below) approximately 20 and 80 percent of Texas and Oklahoma, respectively, are in Severe Drought or greater. The 7-day rainfall forecast (also shown below with the Drought Monitor) shows parts of the region could see 0.1” or more of rainfall, however, the areas that need it the most are expected to see only minor amounts. We also see evaporative demand (shown with the Drought Outlook below) over the last couple of weeks has been above-normal in the hardest hit areas, which tells us that in addition to not much precipitation coming in, more moisture is leaving via the plants and soil from evapotranspiration.

NOAA’s latest seasonal drought outlook (shown below) calls for drought to persist or even expand across much of Texas and the Southwest U.S. through April. We would agree with NOAA’s assessment, and think the high evaporative demand and the extreme precipitation deficits are digging a hole that will be very difficult to climb out of when spring and summer arrive.
In the 8-14 range, forecasts are showing large parts of Texas and Oklahoma could see some precipitation but it looks like the line will be around I-20 and extend south leaving the worst areas in the Panhandle and Rolling Plains dry. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecast shows the odds are tilting to a dry scenario for the month of February as a whole.

That’s it for this week. We will be back next week and will provide an update on the drought and the latest forecasts. If you have any questions about conditions around Texas and Oklahoma please contact us at [email protected]

Written by:
kristin
Published on:
February 2, 2018

Categories: Livestock Wx, The Cattleman Now

Recent Posts

On the Horizon

May 31, 2023

Beginning in June, many antibiotics will be available only with veterinarian …

Continue Reading about On the Horizon

Texas crop progress and condition for May 30

May 31, 2023

Rainfall continued to be received last week throughout most of the state from trace amounts to …

Continue Reading about Texas crop progress and condition for May 30

Cow-calf Corner: Can the cattle industry have a positive impact on climate change

May 31, 2023

Mark Z. Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist At the …

Continue Reading about Cow-calf Corner: Can the cattle industry have a positive impact on climate change

Footer

Who We Are

Why Join
Leadership
Staff
TSCRA Partners
FAQs
Newsroom
Sponsorships
Employment

What We Do

Theft and Law
Issues and Policy
Education
Young Cattle Raisers
The Cattleman Magazine
Cattle Raisers Insurance
Cattle Raisers Trading Co.
Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association

Information

Cattle Raisers Blog
News Releases
Bereavements
Events
Media Kit
Tip Hotline
Get Involved
Links

Membership

Membership Center
Membership Center Instructions
Join
Renew
  • Email
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

PO BOX 101988
FORT WORTH, TX 76185

1-800-242-7820

© 2023 Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association; All Rights Reserved.

COPYRIGHT | PRIVACY POLICY | TERMS OF USE