Livestock Wx for April 27, 2018: Good Rainfall Over the Last Week and More on the Way.

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Livestock Wx for April 27, 2018: Good Rainfall Over the Last Week and More on the Way.
Observed Rainfall
Rain did fall over drought-stricken sections of West Texas and Oklahoma, but it only amounts to about a 1/2 inch or even less. Considering it would take at least 4 inches to fully recover from drought impacts, there is still a long way to go.  The below image shows the observed rainfall over the last seven days.
 

Next Week’s Rainfall
Looking out into early May, the 7-Day Accumulated Rainfall Forecast (image below) shows a similar pattern with much better chances for rain over eastern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas compared to amounts further west.

Unfortunately, less than 1/4 inch of rain is expected over parts of the Southwest U.S. listed in severe or extreme drought.
Not much change in the most recent release of the U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas and Oklahoma.  The only exception would be expansion of the Extreme Drought (D3) category for Val Verde, Kinney, Real, and Uvalde counties in Texas.
3-8 Day Fire Weather Outlook
On Monday and Tuesday (04/30 – 05/01) parts of the Southern Plains could see strong winds in areas with very dry conditions.  This could result in critical fire weather conditions where the strong winds intersect with areas that have very low relative humidity values.  For those in New Mexico and Far West Texas, be on the look-out early next week!
Livestock Weather Journal
The first issue of the Livestock Weather Journal is almost ready and should start showing up in mailboxes the week of May 7.
In the issue, John Feldt, Livestock Wx’s Chief Meteorologist, discusses why it has been so dry over parts of the Southern Plains this winter.  The article discusses why the dry pattern setup the way it did and how it could change with La Niña diminishing and as we transition to spring and summer.  Potential good news for getting out of drought.  It also could mean we maintain the current pattern and the drought could intensify.  Either way, we are entering a critical transition period and we should be watching how things unfold over the next month.
The Feature article for the issue, continues with the drought theme but looks at the number of weeks Texas and Oklahoma have been in Exceptional Drought (the highest drought category for the U.S. Drought Monitor) and the potential long-term impacts these intense droughts have had on our range and cropland.  For example, since 2005, several counties in the Rolling Plains have been in Exceptional Drought for the equivalent of almost four years.  That’s more than any other county in the U.S. during that time frame.
If you’re interested in a free one-month trial of the Livestock Weather Journal, please go to www.LivestockWx.com/premium to get on our list.  Included in the free-trial is also a “ticket” to the Livestock Weather LIVE! webinar that will be held around May 17^th.  The purpose of the LIVE! webinar is to provide an opportunity for people to hear a discussion on the new monthly and seasonal forecast and have an opportunity to ask questions of our Chief Meteorologist.
That’s it for this week.  As always, if you have any questions about conditions around Texas and Oklahoma please contact us at: [email protected]