April 10, 2020: Drought Expected to Improve in South Texas but NOAA is Calling for a Warm May-Jun-Jul for Much of Country

May-Jun-Jul Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

NOAA updated its Seasonal Outlook on April 16 for May-June-July. NOAA is expecting average temperature to be above normal for a large part of the Contiguous U.S.

The highest odds for unseasonably warm temps are expected across the interior West, most of Texas, and the eastern third of the country.

Slightly lower odds for above-normal temperatures are expected for most areas, which the exception of the Central Plains, where the models do not see much of a signal either way (white area or Equal Chances).

NOAA also expects a similar pattern through the summer and early fall. By late fall and through winter, above-normal temperatures are favored across the southern tier of the contiguous U.S. with weaker temperature signals forecast across the northern tier. This pattern is expected based on recent trends and the potential for a shift toward colder ocean conditions over the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

For precipitation, there is a tile in the odds for above-normal precipitation amounts for most of the central and eastern U.S. Below normal precipitation is expected for the Pacific Northwest, northern California, and the northern Great Basin. This pattern of wet in the Central and East and dry in parts of the West is expected to continue.

Seasonal Drought Outlook

NOAA also released an update to their Seasonal Drought Outlook. Although parts of California has received some precipitation over the last few weeks, they are still seeing some deficits as the rainy season draws to a close. As a result, NOAA is expecting the current drought to persist there.

There is also the potential for new drought development in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain Region, the Sierras in California, and northwestern Nevada. This is associated with well below normal precipitation since October and the expectation of warm, dry conditions over the next three months.

Drought removal, however, is expected for eastern Colorado, South Texas, and along the Gulf Coast. Florida in particular will be transitioning to their wet season and should also see large improvements to dryness. in May and very early June.