Cow-Calf Corner is a weekly newsletter by the Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Agency.
July 6, 2020
Slow recovery projected for U.S. and global economy
By Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have devastating impacts on public health and the economies of the U.S. and many other countries. There is much uncertainty about the future impacts of COVID-19 but even in the best of circumstances, the economic impacts are enormous.
Table 1 shows a range of estimates for changes in U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020 and 2021. All of the estimates for 2020 are significantly worse than the 2.8% decrease in GDP in 2008, during the last recession.
Table 1. Change in U.S. GDP (Percent).
2019 | 2020* | 2021* | |
U.S. Federal Reserve [1] | +2.3 | -6.5 | +5.0 |
OECD [2] | +2.3 | -7.3 (-8.5)^ | +4.1 (+1.9)^ |
IMF [3] | +2.3 | -8.0 | +4.5 |
*2020 and 2021 forecast; ^Impact with second COVID-19 outbreak
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
IMF = International Monetary Fund
The 2020 U.S. unemployment rate is forecast at 9.3%, replacing pre-COVID estimates of a continuation of the 3.5% rate from late 2019 [1]. The Fed estimate for the 2021 unemployment rate is 6.5%, persisting at a 5.5% rate in 2022 [1]. The impact of unemployment and reduced income in the U.S. economy is likely to grow at some point as government support reduces or ends.
Like the pandemic, the economic impacts are global as well. The most recent projections from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) includes the following summary:
“The global economy is now experiencing the deepest recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s, with GDP declines of more than 20% and a surge in unemployment in many countries. Even in countries where containment measures have been relatively light, early data are already making clear that the economic and social costs of the pandemic will be large. Growth prospects depend on many factors, including how COVID-19 evolves, the duration of any shutdowns, the impact on activity, and the implementation of fiscal and monetary policy support. Uncertainty will likely prevail for an extended period.” [2]
Likewise from the International Monetary Fund (IMF):
“Global growth is projected at –4.9% in 2020, 1.9% points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4%. Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 6½ percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020.” [3]
The OECD, with estimates for single-hit and double-hit (second COVID-19 outbreak) scenarios, state that, “In both scenarios, we won’t be back at 2019-Q4 level for at least two years.”
The magnitude of the impact on domestic and international beef demand is uncertain though certainly reduced from previous estimates. Beef demand will depend on a number of factors including; evolution and future impacts of COVID-19; type and duration of fiscal and monetary support; recovery of food service sector; rate of employment recovery; exchange rates; politics (including election year impacts, trade disputes, etc.) and others. There will be many challenges for many months and a continuing atmosphere of uncertainty.
[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20200610.pdf
[2] http://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/
[3] https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020
Summertime water requirements for the cow herd
By Glenn Selk, Oklahoma State University Emeritus Extension animal scientist
During hot summer months, the water needed for a cow herd often determines several other management decisions. To best assess the adequacy of water quantities in surface water or from wells or “rural water” supplies, it first is necessary to have an idea of the amount needed for cattle of different sizes and stages of production that you may have during the summer on the ranch.
A University of Georgia publication (Rossi and Pence, revised by Dyer, 2012) lists the estimated water requirements for cattle in different production stages if the daily high temperature is 90 degrees F. They suggest that the amount of water required can be estimated by the production stage and the weight of the cattle.
For instance, a lactating cow needs 2 gallons of water per 100 pounds of body weight. A non-lactating cow or bull needs just 1 gallon of water per 100 pounds of body weight. If you are estimating water needs for your cattle, be honest about the weight of the cows in the herd. Many cows today weigh 1200 pounds or more (some a lot more). Therefore, expect that most spring calving cows will need at least 24 gallons per day for themselves and for their calf.
Also recognize that some summer days in Oklahoma get even hotter than the 90 degrees used in the Georgia paper. On days with extreme heat, expect the water usage to go up even further.
Water quality is also a consideration in the summertime. Nitrate concentrations in surface water may be a concern especially if that water source has runoff from nearby crop fields. Nitrates in water can add to the nitrates consumed from stressed plants such as forage sorghums and Johnsongrass. Water samples can be sent for nitrate content via your local County Extension office to the Oklahoma State University Soil, Water and Forage Analytical Laboratory in Stillwater.
Blue green algae also may occur in standing water and be toxic to cattle. Although called blue-green algae, the culprit is actually a cyanobacteria that produces the toxin which can be lethal to cattle that drink from the affected pond. Water tests may be sent to the Oklahoma Animal Disease Diagnostic Laboratory for microscopic screening for blue-green algae. Consult your local large animal veterinarian for assistance with this test.
Cow-Calf Corner is a weekly newsletter by the Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Agency.