Source: Cow-Calf Corner is a weekly newsletter by the Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Agency.
Oct. 21, 2019
African Swine Fever impacts global protein markets…and will for years
By Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist
African swine fever (ASF) continues to roil protein markets in Asia, especially China, and other parts of the world. The disease continues to spread and impacts are growing and very dynamic in nature. However, the latest data from USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) shows that the pattern of impacts on global protein markets is beginning to be revealed. No doubt numbers will change with more time.
The epicenter of ASF is China which, as recently as 2018, produced nearly half (47.8 percent) of world pork production. Estimates of hog losses since 2018 due to ASF in China range widely but most put the number at more than half of total hogs with some estimates up to 70-80% hog mortality. As ASF impacts grew from initial reports in August 2018 to now, pork production in China is projected to decrease 14.0 percent in 2019 from 2018 levels with another 25.3 percent drop year over year in 2020. That implies a 35.7 percent decrease in Chinese pork production in two years. This contributes to a 15.7 percent decrease in global pork production from 2018 to 2020. The losses in China may well exceed these estimates.
In 2018, pork consumption accounted for 74 percent of total Chinese beef, pork and poultry consumption. The losses to ASF are creating a major protein deficit in China that is impacting all protein markets globally as China attempts to mitigate reduced meat supplies. Total Chinese consumption of pork, poultry and beef is projected to decrease by 14.9 percent from 2018 to 2020; with pork dropping to a 59.8 percent share of total meat consumption. Pork imports are projected to increase 66.6 percent in 2019 over 2018 and another 34.6 percent year over year in 2020. Global pork imports are expected to grow 13.5 percent year over year in 2019 and another 11.0 percent in 2020 as China’s share of global pork imports grows from 19.7 percent in 2018 to 35.1 percent in 2020. Global pork exports are expected to grow 11.3 percent year over year in 2019 and another 10.4 percent in 2020. The U.S. began to see direct impacts of this with a 479 percent jump in pork exports to China in July and August.
China is looking to other proteins as well. Chinese imports of poultry meat are projected to increase 82.7 percent year over year in 2019 and another 20 percent in 2020 leading to a two-year increase of 119.3 percent in poultry meat imports in China. China’s share of global poultry imports will increase from 3.7 percent in 2018 to 7.3 percent in 2020. World poultry meat exports in 2019 are projected to increase 6.1 percent year over year and another 4.4 percent in 2020.
Beef imports to augment protein supplies in China will add to the rapid pace of beef import growth in China since 2013. Chinese beef imports are expected to increase 63.6 percent year over year in 2019 and another 20.8 next year. China’s share of global beef imports is projected to be 30.0 percent in 2020, up from 8.6 percent as recently as 2015. Total world beef exports are projected to grow 4.3 percent in 2019 over 2018 and another 4.4 percent year over year in 2020.
In total, global production of beef, pork and poultry is projected to decline by 1.5 percent year over year in 2019 and decrease another 2.4 percent in 2020 as a result of decreased pork production due to ASF. At the same time, global meat exports are expected to increase 6.9 percent in 2019 compared to 2018 and to grow another 6.1 percent in 2020. As a result, global meat exports are projected to expand from 11.2 percent of total production to 13.2 percent in just two years. ASF is not controlled in most countries where it is currently active; is difficult to eradicate; and restocking is usually unsuccessful if the disease is not completely controlled. The rebuilding of the global pork industry is not a matter of months but rather will take years. It is clear that ASF will have very significant impacts on global protein markets for the foreseeable future.
Good records should be an important part of overall management program
By Bob LeValley, Oklahoma Beef Quality Assurance coordinator
Good record keeping can be an important asset in management strategies for all phases of cattle production, from the cow/calf producer to the feedlot. Record keeping systems may be elaborate and extensive utilizing computer software, or very simple well-organized handwritten notes. The “system” is not what is important; keeping them up to date and accurate is critical for use as a management tool. The Beef Quality Assurance (BQA) program stresses keeping records not only for management purposes, but also as a means to document the proper use and safety of animal health products. The industry must be able to document it has tight control of risk factors such as withdrawal periods for residue avoidance. This also helps to ensure and strengthen consumer confidence in beef safety.
Accurate records are important to validate herd health treatment recommendations. It allows veterinarians to adjust treatment regimens as animals and environmental conditions change. The BQA program suggests the development of a Treatment Protocol Plan specific to your operation. It is simply a written plan developed with your veterinarian, for what treatments are to be used when cattle get sick. It also specifies a plan for follow and/or alternative treatment if the initial treatment does not produce the desired result. The plan should be reviewed and updated regularly with your veterinarian. Records should also be kept on the use of all medicated feeds and minerals. This will help avoid the potential for violative residue, as withdrawal times must be strictly followed.
The BQA program has a good review of suggested record keeping details. For more information on the BQA program or to become BQA certified in Oklahoma, visit the Beef Quality Assurance website at BQA.org, or contact your OSU Extension office. Texas producers can visit texasbeefquality.org for more information.
Producers can become BQA certified either through the online process or by attending an in-person BQA certification program.
Maintain body condition between calving and the breeding season. (“Don’t let ‘em slip”)
By Glenn Selk, Oklahoma State University Emeritus Extension animal scientist
Body condition score (BCS) at calving is the single most important trait determining when a cow resumes heat cycles and therefore when she is likely to re-conceive for the next calf crop. However, it is also very important to avoid condition loss between calving and the breeding season to maintain excellent rebreeding performance.
Fall calving cows normally are in good body condition when they calve in September and October. Body condition changes from the time the cow calves until she begins the breeding season can also play a significant role in the rebreeding success story. This appears to be most important to those cows that calve in the marginal condition score range of 4 or 5.
A two-year Oklahoma State University study shows the impact of losing body condition in the period from calving to the start of the breeding season. This study was conducted with spring-calving cows, but the “lesson-learned” applies to fall calving cows as well. Seventy-five cows in year 1 and seventy cows in year two were randomly allotted to LOSE body condition from calving (beginning Feb. 11) until mid April or MAINTAIN body condition during the same time frame. Cows were exposed to fertile bulls for 90 days each year starting May 1. Pregnancy rate was determined at 70 days after the breeding season. Cows that were fed to maintain body condition from calving until the beginning of the breeding season averaged 94% pregnant, while those that calved in similar body condition but lost nearly one full condition score were 73% rebred. The body condition that was maintained throughout late pregnancy until calving time must be maintained until rebreeding to accomplish high rebreeding rates.
By studying the nutrient requirement tables for lactating beef cows, we can learn that an 1100 pound cow needs about 2.5 pounds of crude protein per day. She should receive approximately 1 pound of protein from the standing grass and/or low quality (4.5% crude protein) grass hay she consumes free choice. Therefore, we need to provide 1.5 pounds of protein via supplements. If we are feeding a high protein cube such as a 40% protein supplement, she will need about 3.75 pounds of supplement daily. If the supplement is a 30% supplement, then 5 pounds per day will be needed. Maintaining the body condition through the breeding season should be rewarded with a high percentage calf crop the following year.
Cow-Calf Corner is a weekly newsletter by the Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Agency.