Dec. 7, 2020
2021 protein production
By Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
Despite the extraordinary volatility and dynamics of meat industries and food markets in 2020, total meat production for the year is projected just 1.2 percent lower than pre-COVID forecasts. As this year winds down, the pandemic is still raging going into 2021 but with expectations that vaccines will help bring COVID-19 under control during the coming year. Tables 1, 2 and 3 present forecasts for production, imports, exports and per capita consumption of beef, pork and broiler meat in 2021. The tables are based on current forecasts from the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).
Beef production is forecast to decrease in 2021 with cyclically smaller cattle numbers and carcass weights retreating from record 2020 levels. Beef trade is expected to improve with smaller beef imports and increased beef exports in the coming year. These will combine with decreased production to reduce per capita beef consumption in 2021.
Table 1. Beef Production, Imports, Exports and Consumption.
| Year | Production | % Chg. | Imports | % Chg. | Exports | % Chg. | Consumption | % Chg. |
| Mil. Lbs. | YOY* | Mil. Lbs. | YOY | Mil. Lbs. | YOY | Lbs./Capita^ | YOY | |
| 2019 | 27155 | +1.1 | 3058 | +2.0 | 3026 | -4.2 | 58.1 | +1.4 |
| 2020a | 27230 | +0.3 | 3469 | +13.4 | 2915 | -3.7 | 59.1 | +1.3 |
| 2021b | 26960 | -1.0 | 2935 | -15.4 | 3005 | +3.1 | 57.2 | -3.2 |
* Year over Year ^Retail aProjected bForecast
Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center
Pork production will continue to expand in 2021, albeit at a slower pace than the previous two years. Pork exports, which grew sharply in 2020 on the heels of strong demand from China, will grow at a much more modest pace in 2021. Domestic pork consumption may increase slightly as growing pork production exceeds pork export growth.
Table 2. Pork Production, Imports, Exports and Consumption.
| Year | Production | % Chg. | Imports | % Chg. | Exports | % Chg. | Consumption | % Chg. |
| Mil. Lbs. | YOY* | Mil. Lbs. | YOY | Mil. Lbs. | YOY | Lbs./Capita^ | YOY | |
| 2019 | 27596 | +4.9 | 945 | -9.3 | 6321 | +7.6 | 52.3 | +2.6 |
| 2020a | 28462 | +3.1 | 841 | -11.0 | 7422 | +17.4 | 51.5 | -1.5 |
| 2021b | 29087 | +2.2 | 740 | -12.0 | 7550 | +1.7 | 51.9 | +0.7 |
* Year over Year ^Retail aProjected bForecast
Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center
Broiler production is currently forecast to increase slightly in 2021 after two years of strong growth. The broiler industry has more ability to adjust production quickly and may change course depending on how market conditions evolve going into 2021. Strong broiler exports are expected to lead to a decrease in broiler consumption in the coming year.
Table 3. Broiler Production, Imports, Exports and Consumption.
| Year | Production | % Chg. | Imports | % Chg. | Exports | % Chg. | Consumption | % Chg. |
| Mil. Lbs. | YOY* | Mil. Lbs. | YOY | Mil. Lbs. | YOY | Lbs./Capita^ | YOY | |
| 2019 | 42435 | +3.1 | 131 | -5.8 | 7103 | +0.5 | 95.1 | +2.7 |
| 2020a | 44214 | +4.2 | 127 | -3.1 | 7186 | +1.2 | 96.6 | +1.6 |
| 2021b | 44413 | +0.5 | 121 | -4.7 | 7668 | +6.7 | 95.3 | -1.3 |
* Year over Year ^Retail aProjected bForecast
Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center
At this time, total red meat and poultry production is projected to increase to another new record level of 107.2 billion pounds in 2021, as increased pork and poultry production offsets decreased beef production. However, with strong meat exports offsetting increased production, domestic total meat consumption is projected to decrease to 222.1 pounds per capita, down from 225.3 pounds in 2020. Many factors may cause revisions to these forecasts including the speed and effectiveness of controlling the ongoing pandemic; macroeconomic uncertainties in the U.S. and global economies; changing feed market conditions; currency exchange rates; and evolving trade policy, among others. Conditions remain very dynamic and uncertain at the end of 2020 but there is potential for more stability in the second half of 2021.
Plan now for colostrum needs this spring
By Glenn Selk, Oklahoma State University Emeritus Extension animal scientist
It is not too soon to begin to prepare for the spring calving season. Locating, obtaining, and storing several doses of colostrum or colostrum replacer will come in handy before the first heifers start to go into labor. Calves born after a difficult birth are at a high risk of failing to receive adequate colostrum by natural suckling because of greatly decreased colostrum intake. Calves that are born to a prolonged stage II of parturition (delivery through the pelvic canal) very often suffer from severe respiratory acidosis. Acidotic calves are less efficient at absorbing colostral immunoglobulins even if artificially fed colostrum. The only disease protection baby calves will receive is via the passive transfer of antibodies (immunoglobulins) from the colostrum that they ingest. Therefore effort should be made to provide weak newborn calves with the best source of colostrum available via bottle suckling or tube feeding.
Natural colostrum is still considered the best source of the immunoglobulins for disease protection for the calf. If there is still a dairy in your area, the opportunity may exist to obtain some natural colostrum from newly freshened dairy cows. Avoid obtaining colostrum from dairies that are known to have had an incidence of “Johnes Disease”. Take time to visit with a local large animal veterinarian about avoiding the introduction of “Johnes Disease” into your herd.
Fresh colostrum can be stored in 1 quart doses by putting that much (1 quart) in a gallon-size re-sealable plastic bag. Lay the bags flat to freeze in the freezer. When it is time to thaw the colostrum, it will be easier and quicker to thaw, compared to 2 quarts or more in a big frozen chunk. The amount of immunoglobulin ingested is also a major determinant of final blood immunoglobulin concentration. A practical “rule-of-thumb” is to feed 5 to 6% of the calf’s body weight within the first 6 hours and repeat the feeding when the calf is about 12 hours old. For an 80 pound calf, this will equate to approximately 2 quarts of colostrum per feeding. Consequently, if the calf is quite large (about 100 pounds), then the amount of colostrum will need to be increased accordingly to 2 ½ quarts per feeding.
Not many beef cow operations have a dairy nearby, or are willing to try to milk out a beef cow that has lost a calf. If there is no source of natural colostrum available, go to veterinary supply store and purchase a few doses of a commercial colostrum “replacer.” Colostrum replacers will contain greater than 100 grams of immunoglobulin per dose. Make certain to read the label before purchasing. Colostrum replacers may seem expensive, but the value of a live calf at weaning strongly suggests that every effort to keep all of them alive is worth the investment.