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Livestock Wx for Aug. 18, 2017: Livestock Wx, a provider of weather information for stock producers, discusses the recent rainfall over the TSCRA region and what can be expected for the remaining hurricane season.
The Big Drought Erasure
Good rainfall continued across the TSCRA region with the Texas Panhandle, parts of North Texas, eastern portions of New Mexico and most of Oklahoma receiving anywhere from 2 inches to 10+ inches of moisture over the last 7-days. This also led to below normal temperatures for these areas. As a result, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows a large reduction of drought (D1 or greater) in Oklahoma from around 14 percent last week to no areas in Oklahoma classified in drought, while Texas dropped to about 1 percent of the state being classified in drought. New Mexico remained drought free.
The states of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota remain in a substantial drought with little change over the week.
An Unusually Active Hurricane Season Expected
Since the region is relatively quiet—outside of maybe too much rainfall—let’s turn to what can be expected for the remaining hurricane season. NOAA Hurricane forecasters are now predicting a higher likelihood of an above-normal season along with an increase in the predicted number of named storms and major hurricanes. The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010 when Tropical Storm Hermine hit Mexico tracking into Texas, Oklahoma, and into Kansas killing a total of 84 people in both countries.
Forecasters now say there is a 60-percent chance of an above-normal season, with 14-19 named storms and 2-5 major hurricanes. A prediction for 5-9 hurricanes remains unchanged from the initial May outlook. We are entering the height of the hurricane season—late August through much of September.
Gulf of Mexico Quiet Right Now
While several potential systems are worth monitoring within the Atlantic Basin, right now there is no significant activity expected to develop within the Gulf of Mexico over the next 10 days.