USDA projections of crop prices

The USDA released their Grains and Oilseeds Outlook for 2018 at the 94th Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia, this week. Among the 3 major crops, for U.S. producers corn and soybean prices are similar to a year ago, despite relatively large stocks of both commodities. In contrast, spring wheat prices are higher  relative to 2017. While domestic use of corn is expected to increase driven mostly by expansion in the ethanol sector, U.S. corn exports are expected to face strong competition from Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine. For wheat, continued large global supplies will maintain strong export competition. Soybean carryin stocks are the highest since 2007/08, but expected growth in exports driven mainly by China results in lower forecast 2018/19 ending stocks in both absolute terms and relative to use. Season-average corn prices received by producers are expected to reach $3.40 per bushel, up 10 cents from the 2017/18 forecast. Soybean prices are expected to decline slightly to $9.25 per bushel while wheat prices are expected to rise to $4.70, up 10 cents per bushel from 2017/18. Read more…