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Jan. 17, 2020: Latest Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for February-March-April

Precipitation Outlook

The outlook for precipitation during the FMA timeframe shows enhanced odds of below normal seasonal precipitation amounts across southwestern Oregon, California, much of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of West Texas. Chances of above normal precipitation amounts are enhanced from the northern Intermountain region and northern Rockies across the Northern Plains, most of the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes region, and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Equal chances (EC) are forecast among areas where seasonal precipitation amounts are expected to be similar to what would normally be expected for FMA.

Temperature Outlook

The temperature outlook for February-March-April (FMA) is showing above normal temperatures from across the southern tier of the country, and the East Coast states. There is, however, a tilt in the odds for below normal temperatures across the Northern Plains. Equal chances (EC) of above, near, or below normal temperatures are indicated across the remainder of the country. 

Status of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Conditions

Currently, ENSO-neutral conditions persist across the tropical Pacific Ocean (no indication of either El Niño or La Niña). Despite this recent warmup of surface and subsurface temperatures in the Pacific, the models are indicating conditions are not likely to result in the formation of an El Niño. The official NOAA ENSO forecast shows we will likely be in an ENSO-neutral status through the spring 2020 (~60 percent chance) and summer 2020 (~50 percent chance).