March 13, 2020
This week NOAA released the latest forecast from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) tool. For those new to the NMME forecasts, it is an effort by NOAA and several research groups to create a census forecast using different forecast models. These consensus products, or ensemble forecasts, usually outperform any one forecast, which is why we like to use them.
The latest NMME model run for Aprril-May-June indicates the prospect for above-normal temperatures over most of the nation this spring. For Apr-May-Jun precipitation, there is not much of an indication one way or the other, with the exception of parts of the Midwest, Montana and the West Coast.
Next 10 Days
Over the next 10 days a large chunk of Oklahoma and parts of North Texas will see rainfall totals of four inches or more. Temperatures over this time period should be average to above average for March. We are, however, seeing the possibility of some fairly cold temperatures taking shape for the next weekend, March 22. The NOAA GFS model has not picked this up, but the European model is showing the possibility of a fairly good cold outbreak. Stay tuned, temperatures could be in the 20’s for the Panhandle and 30-40 degrees in the rest of the TSCRA area.