• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association

Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association

To Honor and Protect the Ranching Way of Life

  • Who We Are
    • Why Join
    • Leadership
    • Staff
    • Allied Members
    • FAQs
    • Newsroom
    • Sponsorships
    • Employment
  • What We Do
    • Theft and Law
    • Issues and Policy
    • Education
    • Young Cattle Raisers
    • The Cattleman Magazine
    • Cattle Raisers Insurance
    • Cattle Raisers Trading Co
  • Events
    • Cattle Raisers Convention
    • Summer Meeting
    • Policy Conference
    • Ranch Gatherings
    • Ranching 101
  • Membership Center
    • Membership Center Instructions
  • Join
  • Renew
  • Show Search
Hide Search

Cow-Calf Corner: May Forage Conditions Critical

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

In the past week I have driven across Nebraska, northern Colorado, Wyoming and Montana.  It is springtime in the region and pastures and rangeland are trying to begin growing.  However, the green up is muted because of dry conditions, with little forage growth evident in many areas.  The limited greening of rangelands will fizzle quickly in the coming weeks without immediate moisture.  In a newsletter article three weeks ago, I discussed the implications for the beef cow herd inventory given the current drought conditions (Cow-Calf Corner “The Cow Herd Numbers Game”).  The article ended by saying that the next few weeks would be critical regarding the drought.  

Each passing week is indeed critical and by any measure, the U.S. is in the worst condition now of any May, in at least the last 35 years.  The Latest Drought Monitor has a Drought Severity and Coverage Index (DSCI) of 183 (out of 500 possible) for the nation, the highest DSCI in mid-May for any year of the data back to 2000.  This includes over 63 percent of the country abnormally dry or worse, with 21.6 percent of the country in extreme (D3) to exceptional drought (D4).  USDA reported pasture and range conditions starting in May have the highest percentage of poor to very poor conditions this year in data back to 1995.

May 1 hay stocks were 15.1 percent below the 2012-2021 average for the country and were down 21.7 percent from the ten-year average in the 17 western states.  This includes ten western states with May 1 hay stocks down more than 30 percent from the ten-year average.  Hay prices are forecast to reach record levels in 2022 (see figure below) with national alfalfa prices forecast to average $245/ton for the 2022/2023 hay crop year.  Other hay prices are forecast to average $155/ton for the current hay crop year. 

High fertilizer and fuel prices are adding to the extraordinary cattle industry challenges in 2022.  High input costs are causing some producers that are not facing drought conditions to reduce or skip fertilization of pastures and hay fields.  This will result in additional forage reduction and push herd inventories even lower.    

Beef cow slaughter from January through April was 4.2 percent of the January 1, 2022 beef cow herd inventory.  The average beef cow culling percentage of the first four months of the year was 3.0 percent from beginning of this data in 1986 through 2021.  The highest previous culling percentage for the January through April period was 3.7 percent in 1986.  The beef cow herd decline this year may well be the largest since 1986, when the beef cow herd decreased 4.7 percent year over year, a drop of 1.65 million head in one year.

2022 hay prices forecast by the Livestock Marketing Information Center

Written by:
Chrissy LeClear
Published on:
May 23, 2022

Categories: TSCRA Update

Recent Posts

Crime Watch: Cow missing in Potter County

July 1, 2022

Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association Special Ranger Chris Ward, District 1 in the …

Continue Reading about Crime Watch: Cow missing in Potter County

Texas, Oklahoma weekly livestock auction summaries for July 1

July 1, 2022

Texas Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers sold steady to 4.00 higher. Trade activity …

Continue Reading about Texas, Oklahoma weekly livestock auction summaries for July 1

U.S. drought monitor and summary report for June 28

July 1, 2022

This Week's Drought Summary Widespread moderate drought and abnormal dryness continued to form …

Continue Reading about U.S. drought monitor and summary report for June 28

Footer

Who We Are

Why Join
Leadership
Staff
Allied Members
FAQs
Newsroom
Sponsorships
Employment

What We Do

Theft and Law
Issues and Policy
Education
Young Cattle Raisers
The Cattleman Magazine
Cattle Raisers Insurance
Cattle Raisers Trading Co.
Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association

Information

Cattle Raisers Blog
News Releases
Bereavements
Events
Media Kit
Tip Hotline
Get Involved
Links

Membership

Membership Center
Membership Center Instructions
Join
Renew
  • Email
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

PO BOX 101988
FORT WORTH, TX 76185

1-800-242-7820

© 2022 Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association; All Rights Reserved.

COPYRIGHT | PRIVACY POLICY | TERMS OF USE

We Live For This Land