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June 20, 2019: NOAA’s Latest Seasonal Outlook

Last week we brought you the latest forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) that indicated parts of the country could be in store for cooler and wetter conditions over the next three months. This week, we bring you a similar forecast but this time it’s NOAA’s official Seasonal Outlooks that were released on Thursday, June 20 for July-August-September (JAS).

Looking at both forecasts is a bit redundant (one of the models the NMME uses is the same one NOAA uses for its official seasonal outlooks) but when we’re talking 3-month outlooks a little redundancy is not a bad thing. We should always think about these long-lead outlooks as pieces of evidence and when you put them all together, what is the convergence of evidence telling us? Well, in this case it’s telling us much of cattle country could see a continuation of cooler and wetter weather than normal. There are exceptions, of course, and South Texas and the West could see warmer temperatures over the next three months.

33-40% Chance of Below-normal temperatures from the Central and Southern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes

The July-August-September (JAS) 2019 temperature outlook is showing below-normal temperatures are the most likely category (see map below) from the Central and Southern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. Above-normal seasonal temperatures are most likely for the western third of the

Country, Southern Texas, the Gulf Coast states, and east of the Appalachian Mountains.

33-40% Chance of Above-normal precipitation is forecast for a large region of the country from the interior West to the Mississippi Valley

The July-August-September (JAS) 2019 precipitation outlook is showing above-normal precipitation

is forecast for a large region of the country from the interior West to the Mississippi Valley. Part of the reason we could see higher precipitation is the models are expecting to see a northward shift in the summer monsoon. They are also operating off of historical patterns expected during an El Niño summer.

~66% Chance El Niño will continue through the summer

El Niño conditions continue in the Pacific Ocean during May 2019. There is a 66% chance El Niño will continue through the summer. Most likely, however, El Niño will continue to weaken but it is expected to continue into the fall where it could finally deteriorate to neutral conditions.