This Week’s Drought Summary: A broken, highly-variable rainfall pattern predominated across the Country. Most areas where conditions are often dry during the summer followed this pattern, with little or no precipitation falling across the Far West and the northern Intermountain West. Other areas receiving subnormal precipitation – generally only a few tenths of an inch – included north-central North Dakota, most of northeastern Minnesota, part of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and adjacent Wisconsin, Central and southern Texas, and many areas across Louisiana and Mississippi. Farther east, rainfall was highly variable across the Southeast from Alabama through the Carolinas. Most of this area recorded at least a few tenths of an inch of rain, and roughly half received at least an inch. The heaviest amounts (2 to locally 6 inches) were concentrated along the Georgia/Florida border and the coastal Carolinas while totals on the low side were somewhat more common in south-central and northeastern Alabama, northwestern and east-central Georgia, upstate South Carolina, and a stripe across interior western North Carolina.
South: A variable rainfall pattern led essentially to regional adjustments. Dryness and drought in upper South Texas improved, but conditions persisted or worsened slightly off to the south and west. Patchy abnormal dryness was again assessed farther north in Texas, with some adjustments from the previous week resulting in approximately the same amount of coverage. Abnormal dryness was contracted from part of interior western Tennessee but expanded farther east in southeastern Tennessee and adjacent parts of Georgia and Alabama.
Looking Ahead: During the next 5 days (July 11 – 15, 2019) a developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to spread heavy rain from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward through northern and western Georgia, where totals exceeding 1.5 inches should be widespread. Between 7 and 15 inches of rain is forecast for the southeastern half of Louisiana, and 3 to 7 inches are anticipated through most of the rest of Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi, and the southwestern quarter of Alabama.
In other areas of drought, the precipitation pattern isn’t expected to bring any dramatic relief. Moderate rains of 0.5 to 1.0 inch are expected in central and eastern Tennessee, central and eastern Georgia, parts of the Carolinas, the most orographically-favored areas in northwestern Washington, and northwestern Minnesota. Only a few tenths of an inch at best are forecast in other areas of dryness and drought across the contiguous states.
Meanwhile, abnormally high temperatures [daytime highs averaging 3°F to 7°F above normal] are expected in the central High Plains and the Intermountain West, and cooler than normal conditions – at least partially in association with heavy rains from the developing tropical system – should occur from the southeastern Great Plains eastward through the lower half of the Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and Tennessee.
The CPC 6-10 day outlook (July 16-20, 2019) favors wetter-than-normal weather in the Mississippi Valley, upper Southeast, the northern Plains, the Northwest, and the eastern two-thirds of Alaska. Odds favor less rain than normal in Central and West Texas, the immediate Southeast coastline, and northern Florida. Enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures cover Alaska and most of the Nation from the Rockies eastward. Only in the Northwest do odds slightly favor below-normal temperatures.