Livestock Wx Weather Outlook, Sept. 29, 2017: Rainfall and early fall outlook

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SPONSORED CONTENT Livestock Wx for Sept. 29, 2017:  Livestock Wx discusses this week’s rainfall and what conditions to expect over the next two weeks.
How Much Rain Has Fallen This Week?
For the first full week of fall, rainfall has been plentiful over most of the TSCRA region.  As we reported last week significant rain would fall over key winter wheat growing areas.  As the map below shows, some areas received anywhere from 1.5 inches to 6 or 7 inches of precipitation over the last week.  The area between Albany, TX and Lawton, OK particularly saw significant rainfall.  South Texas also received good moisture, which should help with the dry and drought conditions they have been experiencing.

Winter Wheat Planting Progress
As of this week’s USDA Crop Progress and Condition reports, Oklahoma shows 16 percent winter wheat planted, which is down 9 points from the five year average, while Texas is up 4 points from its recent average at 33 percent wheat planted. As we noted above soil moisture conditions should be improving for much of the Southern Plains winter wheat growing area.
U.S. Drought Monitor Update
This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor showed some expansion of Abnormally Dry and Moderate Drought conditions across New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. Next week’s map should show significant improvement in the areas that received good rainfall this week. The data cutoff each week for the Drought Monitor is Tuesday at 8 a.m. ET, so much of the precipitation that fell this week is not reflected on this week’s drought map. We are still monitoring conditions around the Lower Rio Grande Valley, however, which missed some of the significant rainfall this week.
Dry and Above Normal Temperatures Will Return
The rain will start moving out in the next couple of days and it is starting to look like a prolonged dry period into the middle of October. There will some modest cooling behind the front but above normal readings will likely return again in October. NOAA’s 8-14 Day Outlook maps show much of the TSCRA region has a good chance of above normal temperatures while rainfall is less certain at 33 percent chance of below normal.

As always, Livestock Wx will continue to monitor conditions in and around the TSCRA region.  Hope you have a nice weekend and we will see you next week.