Livestock Wx Weather Outlook, Sept. 22, 2017: Dry conditions and winter wheat planting prospects

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SPONSORED CONTENT: Livestock Wx for Sept. 22, 2017: Livestock Wx discusses the expansion of dry and drought conditions across the TSCRA and that much of this expansion will be brief. Conditions should improve over the next week particularly for winter wheat producers. Livestock Wx will continue to monitor the dry conditions over parts of South Texas, however.
Abnormally Dry and Drought Conditions Expand
In a relatively short amount of time, thanks to hot and dry conditions, abnormally dry and drought conditions have returned to the TSCRA region. This week’s release of the drought monitor (see image below) shows expansion of Abnormally Dry conditions across parts of South and West Texas from about 6 percent of the state being abnormally dry to approximately 18 percent this week. Severe Drought (D2) had a mild expansion in the area southwest of Uvalde. According to the Texas Crop and Weather Report, South Texas is seeing some impacts from the dry conditions. For example, most range and pasture conditions are in fair to poor condition and stock tank levels were declining and could restrict grazing options in some pastures. Cattle body condition scores have declined, but most herds were in fair condition.
Oklahoma, on the other hand, saw a milder expansion of Abnormally Dry conditions with about an 8 percent increase. The worst spot in the state continues to be Harper County, which is listed in Moderate Drought (D1). New Mexico continues to work its magic keeping drought safely out of the state.
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Winter Wheat Planting: TX-OK Should Touch Spurs to these Dry Conditions Over the Next Week
According to this week’s Oklahoma Crop Progress and Condition Report, winter wheat planting had reached 11 percent for the state, which was about 5 percentage points below 2016. Texas, on the other hand, had about 13 percent planted, which was consistent with previous year.
If producers were waiting to plant because of soil moisture conditions, next week should  see a significant improvement in soil conditions for major wheat growing areas. A boundary between warm and humid air over the Midwest and South Central U.S. (image below) and much cooler air to the west will set up this weekend and linger into next week.
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This will result in the possibility of very heavy rain over parts of the winter wheat growing region. These regions could receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with some spots seeing much higher amounts. The below image shows the accumulated rainfall over the next 7-days and how this corresponds to the Southern Plains winter wheat areas.
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This pattern could be slow to change, with above-normal chances for rain through much of next week.
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Stay dry out there and Livestock Wx will be back next week with an update on how much rain these areas actually received. –LivestockWx