A band of 1-to 2-inch rainfall amounts extended from north-central Texas to southeastern-most Arkansas, but most of the region was dry, receiving a few tenths of an inch, if any. No measurable precipitation has fallen during the last 30 to 45 days in southwestern Kansas, western Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle, and interior southern Texas while 90-day deficits are generally between 4 and 8 inches from central Mississippi westward to northeastern Texas and northward through eastern Oklahoma, much of Arkansas, and the southern half of Missouri. The month or more without measurable precipitation was stressing winter wheat in and near western Oklahoma, prompting northwestward D0 expansion into the area. D2 was also expanded to cover areas from southern Missouri southward into northeast Texas and northwestern Louisiana, where 3-month deficits are the largest. A small area in west-central Arkansas and adjacent Oklahoma accumulated a deficit exceeding 10 inches since mid-August.
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During the next 5 days (November 16-20), Moderate precipitation at best is expected for most of the country. Amounts of 0.5 to locally approaching 2.0 inches are expected in the Northeast, the northern and central Appalachians, the eastern Great Lakes, and the central and northern sections of Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. Farther west, more than 0.5 inch is forecast from the Sierra Nevada and the Cascades westward to the Pacific Ocean, with heavy amounts anticipated in the typical orographically-favored areas, specifically along the coast and on the windward (western) slopes of the mountains. Between 5.0 and 8.5 inches could fall on the Washington Cascades, northwestern Washington, the northwestern and west-central California Coast, and the Sierra Nevada. In addition, 0.5-inch or more is expected in some of the higher elevations of western Colorado, western Wyoming, central and north-central Utah, northeastern Nevada, and parts of Idaho. Isolated amounts of 2.0 to 4.5 inches could be dropped on the highest elevations and windward slopes.
During the 6-10 day period (Nov. 21-25), odds favor above-median precipitation only across the Florida Panhandle, the northern Intermountain West, and the northern half of the West Coast States. Below-median precipitation is anticipated elsewhere except in the southern half of the High Plains, the northern Plains, most of the Great Basin, and the Southwest, where neither abnormal wetness nor dryness is favored. Warmer than normal weather is expected from the Pacific Coast eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, the central Great Plains, and central Texas, with subnormal temperatures favored in most areas from the eastern Great Lakes and the southern half of the Mississippi Valley eastward to the Atlantic Coast.