Feb. 14, 2020: NMME Seasonal Outlook for March-April-May
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecast, or NMME, was released this week. The NMME is a collaboration of the National Weather Service and several university partners to produce a consensus seasonal forecast using a suite of different climate models.
The models are indicating pretty good odds for above average temperatures (see temperature map below: orange-dark orange equals higher odds of above normal temperatures) in the March-April-May timeframe and a minor tilt in the odds for less-than average precipitation in New Mexico, Far West Texas, and the Panhandle (see precipitation map below: green colors equals higher odds of above normal precipitation). The eastern half of the county as well as parts of the Northern Plains/Midwest have an increased chance of above normal precipitation potentially adding to what has been a fairly wet year.
NOAA will release its official outlooks for March-April-May on Feb. 20. Since they utilize the NMME models in their official forecast consider this a sneak preview.
Next 7-14 Days
Over the next seven days (Feb. 14-21) a good portion of the TSCRA area will see precipitation. The NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are showing good odds of cooler and wetter conditions for the area. The map below shows the 7-day precipitation forecast along with the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor. We expect to see continued improvement in the drought picture over the next couple of weeks. Unfortunately for South Texas, where some of the largest deficits currently exists, is not expected to receive more than a quarter to a half-inch.