NOAA’s June ENSO estimates a 50 percent chance of El Niño developing during the late summer or early autumn, and an approximately 65 percent chance of El Niño conditions in the winter, so forecasters have instituted an El Niño Watch. Forecasters feel that current conditions are favorable for El Niño, so an El Niño Watch has been raised. But it’s still early, and conditions could change. –climate.gov Read more..