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Livestock Wx for Oct. 6, 2017: Livestock Wx discusses Tropical Storm Nate, summarizes September rainfall, and what changes to expect in October.
Update on Tropical Storm Nate
A variety of forecast models are indicating an early Sunday landfall near the Louisiana/Mississippi coastline. The TSCRA region will not see much of any rainfall from the storm. Once Nate moves inland, it will likely be picked up by the upper flow and accelerate to the Northeast.
|Tropical Storm Nate Tracking Map from Blue Water Outloook|
September Rainfall: the Haves and the Have Nots
Over the past month rainfall has been good to some (maybe too good) and not so good to others. As the map below shows, rainfall in parts of the TX/OK Panhandle, the Rolling Plains and down into West Central Texas and parts of South Texas has been above normal. In fact, in some areas too much rainfall has been observed. This has caused some harvesting and planting activities to be put off. Much of New Mexico has also seen above normal rainfall and would fall on the “Haves” part of the ledger. The “Have Nots” are comprised of southeast OK, parts of North and East Texas and along the Gulf Coast. The areas to watch over the next few weeks will be Southeast OK/Northeast TX and South Texas south of Laredo and Corpus Christi.
Expectations for October
This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor Shows quite a bit of improvement in Texas and Oklahoma. If we look at the short-term forecast below, rainfall over the next 7 days will be minimal. The image below shows the areas of expected rainfall over winter wheat growing areas. Hopefully, the lack of rainfall will help dry things out and allow those in need of harvesting or planting to get their work done. Looking at the National Multi-model Ensemble forecast for October, there is a slight chance rainfall could be below average for this time of year. If that happens you will likely see an expansion of yellow and brown colors on the Drought Monitor map for those areas that missed out on the September rainfall.
Livestock Wx will be back next week and until then will be on the lookout for changes in conditions across the TSCRA region.